NBA Playoffs Preview: Top things to watch, best player in each series, X-factors, and predictions
With the bracket set, let's make some NBA Playoffs picks.
Ah, it’s finally time for the NBA Playoffs.
The time when teams decide to play defense for the entire 48 minutes, when superstars either cement their legacies or tarnish them, when heroes and villains emerge, when rivalries are formed, and when champions are crowned.
To get you ready for all the action, I’m going to break down the top things to watch for in each series, including the best players, possible X-factors, and a prediction for each first round matchup.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
I’m so happy we’re getting a sequel to this Bucks/Pacers matchup from last year’s Eastern Conference first round, in which Indiana knocked Milwaukee out in six games.
A year ago, we watched Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers impose their will on an aging Bucks team that had some major injury dilemmas with Giannis missing the entire series and Damian Lillard missing Games 4 and 5.
This time around, the Bucks are in a similar situation, with Lillard still sidelined with deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. However, they will have Giannis, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game.
For the Pacers, they enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning 15 of 19 games to end the regular season. Haliburton is having another efficient scoring and passing season, and Pascal Siakam has finally started to look much more comfortable in Indy.
This should be another great series that could be decided by the depth of Indiana’s bench. The performances of Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, TJ McConnell, and Obi Toppin could swing this series.
Best player in the series: Giannis Antetokounmpo
X-Factor: Pascal Siakam
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
I think this has the potential to be the best matchup of the entire first round.
The Clippers have been playing some inspired basketball since the return of the oft-injured Kawhi Leonard, sitting first overall in both offensive and defensive NET rating in the last month of the season. James Harden and Ivica Zubac have developed some beautiful chemistry in the pick & roll game, and Norm Powell is having the best season of his career. The stars may finally be aligning for Hollywood’s biggest afterthought.
On the other side, the Nuggets are in a really weird spot right now, a week removed from firing both their head coach and GM in Mike Malone and Calvin Booth respectively. The word on the street is, the locker room was fairly hostile prior to Malone’s exit and that there may have been a dispute between the coach’s roster expectations and that of Booth and the Stan Kroenke-led ownership group.
But counterpoint — the team still has Nikola Jokic. And he’s the best basketball player on the planet.
Kawhi’s health and the version of Jamal Murray we get will likely decide this one.
Best player in the series: Nikola Jokic
X-Factor: Jamal Murray
Prediction: Clippers in 7
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
This series will be cinema — for several reasons.
Let’s start with the basketball.
The Knicks enter this series as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, winning 50+ games for the second straight season. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has turned this franchise around, thanks in large part to the addition of superstar Jalen Brunson and his former Villanova buddies, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. But the Knicks are more than just their Nova boys. A shock trade for Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason and the addition of OG Anunoby a couple of seasons ago has turned this team into a real threat in the East.
For Detroit, this is a city and a basketball team rejuvenated under the tutelage of JB Bickerstaff. Just a season removed from winning just 14 games and suffering the longest losing streak in NBA history, the Pistons have completely flipped their fortunes. This year, they won 44 games en route to making the playoffs for the first time since 2019. They did so behind the stellar performances from Cade Cunningham, who averaged 26.1 points, 9.1 assists, and 6.1 rebounds per game and made the first All-Star Game appearance of his young NBA career.
But perhaps the biggest surprise for this Pistons team has to be Malik Beasley. The former NBA journeyman seems to have found a home in Detroit, after a blazing hot shooting season in which he shot 41.6% from three on over 9 (!) attempts per game. His 319 made three-pointers were above Steph Curry. I’m not quite sure people realize how ridiculous that is. This isn’t just a good shooting season — this is an all-time great shooting season. This is like prime Steph, prime Ray Allen type stuff. And it’s a huge reason why the Pistons aren’t just in the playoffs by accident — they’re here to make noise.
We also have two teams that are liable to get into the odd physical altercation. Pistons Isaiah “Beef Stew” Stewart and Ron Holland are two of the more agro players in the league, and could instigate a scuffle at any moment. You remember the Stewart/LeBron fight. And don’t forget the absolute melee between the Pistons and T-Wolves earlier this season. For the Knicks, Karl-Anthony Towns has had a fight or two as well in his career, most notably with Joel Embiid.
Over the course of what should be a long series, I wouldn’t be shocked if we have some extracurriculars at some point.
Best player in the series: Jalen Brunson
X-Factor: Malik Beasley
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Another really fun first round matchup.
Before the season, if someone told me that the Lakers and Timberwolves would be playing in the first round of the playoffs, I would have assumed that the T-Wolves were the three seed and the Lakers were the six seed. The T-Wolves were coming off of a Western Conference Finals appearance and the Lakers were coming off of a first round exit.
But that is not how the season played out.
The biggest reason being, of course, that the Lake Show acquired five-time NBA All-Star Luka Doncic in a stupefying trade with the Dallas Mavericks that still doesn’t feel real. With Doncic in the fold, head coach JJ Redick has seemingly infinite rotational flexibility now that he can pair the Slovenian with LeBron James, or stagger the two superstars with various lineups. But at any given moment, the Lakers tend to have the best player on the court, regardless of the matchup.
Well — in most matchups.
One matchup where that may not be the case is the Minnesota T-Wolves. That’s because Minnesota has Anthony Edwards. An electric, freakishly athletic two-way wing, Edwards has also not-so-quietly been putting together an incredible shooting season. In the regular season, Ant shot 39.5% from three on 10.3 attempts per game and led the NBA in makes at 320. Remember everything I said about Malik Beasley? Apply that to Edwards too.
The big question mark for the T-Wolves will be how their role players can support Ant offensively. Last year, they relied heavily on Karl-Anthony Towns, who left in the aforementioned trade with the Knicks, bringing Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo back to Minny. Those two, along with Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jaden McDaniels will have to do enough on the offensive end to keep pace with Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves. They will have a pretty sizable advantage in the painted area though, where Lakers bigs Rui Hachimura and Jaxson Hayes will have their hands full with Gobert, Randle, and Reid.
And defensively, the T-Wolves have options to throw at the Lakers stars. Expect them to try to frustrate Doncic early and often to get him thinking about things that aren’t getting buckets.
Best player in the series: Anthony Edwards/Luka Doncic
X-Factor: Naz Reid
Prediction: Lakers in 7
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Look, let’s not overthink this one.
The Magic have been a frisky team for the past couple of seasons, but with Jalen Suggs injured and out for the postseason, I just don’t see it for Jamahl Mosley’s squad.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner do form a formidable duo for Orlando, which will probably be enough to win them at least one game, but this should be relatively straightforward for the C’s.
With a fully healthy core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis, Boston is probably still the best team in basketball. And if this series went more than 5 or 6 games, I’d be pretty surprised. They just have too many talented wings, isolation scorers, and floor-spacing bigs for Orlando to match up with.
Best player in the series: Jayson Tatum
X-Factor: Paolo Banchero
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Fireworks — that’s all I see in my head when I think about this matchup.
For the Warriors, they had to enter the playoff field via the play-in tournament. That’s a far cry from a team that was perennially a top seed throughout the last decade. And unlike the times when Steph, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson were fresh-faced and in their prime, this is a Golden State team that is quite long in the tooth. Steph is 37, Draymond is 35, and new Warrior Jimmy Butler is also 35. Additionally, the Warriors don’t have the same depth that they have traditionally had. Largely unproven guys like Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Bradnin Podziemski, and Quinten Post will all play big roles for this team. And if they can’t hang, it’ll be uphill sledding for Golden State.
But don’t get it twisted, that doesn’t mean the Dubs are cooked. Steph can still score in bunches, and Draymond and Jimmy are still elite playoff risers. This will still be a very difficult team to knock out.
For Houston, this is a team that has not been in the playoffs since the 2020 bubble. And led by head coach Ime Udoka, the Rockets have a brand-new identity this time around, characterized by their defensive versatility and intensity. In the regular season, the Rockets had the third best defensive rating in the entire NBA., thanks in large part to their plethora of wing defenders like Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason. Their ability to switch one through five gives opposing teams fits.
The problem for the Rockets is they don’t have a go-to guy. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have shown flashes of being the offensive hub for the Rockets in closing time, but they just haven’t been consistent enough to trust. Plus, they’re both still young and inexperienced in the postseason.
Houston will need to overwhelm the Warriors defensively and rely on a strength in numbers approach offensively to win this series. Man for man, they do match up well, with the two-big lineup of Steven Adams and Sengun and their endless wing talent.
This should be an outstanding series, with a lot of potential swing factors. And to top it all off, you have two of the game’s greatest agitators going head to head in Houston’s Dillon Brooks and Golden State’s Draymond Green. I’d bet pretty good money that one of the two (if not both) will be receiving at least one technical foul over the course of this series.
Best player in the series: Steph Curry
X-Factor: Amen Thompson
Prediction: Warriors in 6
OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks play-in winner
The Thunder are coming into this first round matchup with the winner of the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks play-in game coming off of one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history.
In fact, this year’s Thunder team had the second highest Net Rating of all time, behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. That Bulls team, of course, went 72-10 and won the NBA title and boasted talent like Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. Heard of em’?
OKC is led by MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished the regular season averaging 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5 rebounds per game on 63.7% true shooting. Shai has had the best season of his already illustrious NBA career, and is looking to add some postseason success to his resume.
Defensively, the Thunder are about as versatile of a group as there is in the NBA, with Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Hartenstein able to take on the tougher assignments in the league on a nightly basis.
This squad is talented, hungry, deep, and complete. And let’s not kid ourselves, they are going to eviscerate the winner of the Grizzlies/Mavs play-in game.
Best player in the series: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
X-Factor: Anthony Davis/Ja Morant (depending on play-in winner)
Prediction: OKC sweep
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat/Atlanta Hawks
What a job Kenny Atkinson has done in his first year as the head coach of the Cavs. Taking over a team that looked lost after getting dismantled by the Celtics in the second round a year ago, Atkinson breathed new life into the Cavs. This year, Cleveland finished the season 64-18 and earned the Eastern Conference’s top seed.
A massive part of that turnaround was Darius Garland’s return to health. After undergoing surgery for a fractured jaw during the 2023-24 season, Garland rushed back to the court and was never 100% for the remainder of last season. This year, he has been one of the driving forces of a dominant Cavs team, averaging 20.6 points and 6.7 assists per game.
And his backcourt running mate, Donovan Mitchell, has been even better. Mitchell has taken a step back from the ball-dominant role that he has traditional played throughout his career, and has improved his playmaking ability in a more creative Cavs offense under Kenny Atkinson. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t still been getting buckets. Mitchell is averaging 24 points per game, and has had some of his best offensive scoring games against the league’s elite, like his 41-point outburst against the Celtics in late February.
In addition, the Cavs role players like Evan Mobley, Max Strus, DeAndre Hunter, Jarrett Allen, and even Ty Jerome have been sensational. When they go to their bench, the drop off isn’t as big as most of the other teams in the league.
Moral of the story is, whoever comes out of the Heat/Hawks play-in game is going to get smoked by the Cavs.
Best player in the series: Donovan Mitchell
X-Factor: Tyler Herro/Trae Young (depending on play-in winner)
Prediction: Cavs sweep